繁荣的轮回:人口变动与经济增长的一个逻辑解释

本书特色

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自2008年以来，中国经济中的“人口红利”消耗殆尽，每年8%以上增速的“中国奇迹”风光不再。未来15-20年，中国经济能否保持中高速增长？通过调整人口政策，能给经济增长带来哪些新动力？本书以独特的视角，从研究中国经济发展的“人口因素”入手，借鉴世界各国经验教训，揭示了中国经济下行的深层次原因，提出了中国人口政策方面的“生育管制”和“流动管制”带来的各种不利经济增长的后果，为各级政府制定促进经济增长的经济政策与改革方案，提供了一条崭新的思路。

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内容简介

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本书以独特的视角, 从研究中国经济发展的“人口因素”入手, 借鉴世界各国经验教训, 揭示了中国经济下行的深层次原因, 提出了中国人口政策方面的“生育管制”和“流动管制”带来的各种不利经济增长的后果, 为各级政府制定促进经济增长的经济政策与改革方案, 提供了一条崭新的

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作者简介

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周天勇，经济学博士，教授，中共中央党校国际战略研究所副所长，中共中央党校校委研究室副主任，北京科技大学博士生导师。 社会兼职有：中国城市发展研究会副理事长兼城市研究所所长，国家行政学院、北京科技大学、东北财政大学、中国社会科学院研究生院等教授，国家发改委价格咨询专家。研究领域为社会主义经济理论、宏观经济、经济发展和增长、劳动经济、中小企业、金融风险、城市化、国企改革、农业经济等。在上海三联出版社、经济科学出版社和中共中央党校出版社出版有《劳动与经济增长》、《效率与供给经济学》、《金融风险与资本社会化》、《中国经济命运与前景的深层次思考》、《新发展经济学》、《中国政治体制改革》、《国有企业改革攻坚》、《现代国有资产管理体系模式》、《走出决策的经济误区》、《走出发展的体制障碍》、《中国：经济运行与结构转换》和研究生用《高级发展经济学》等专著和教材。近年来就国家整体负债、公平与效率、政府各部门收费、财政体制、官民供养比、水电开发、中国增长的危机等方面发表的文章，引起了各方面的高度关注。
王元地，男，四川大学教授，中共党员。2012年以“人文社科青年百人计划” 引进人才进入四川大学工作，聘为副研究员，2014年破格聘为博士生指导教师，并担任四川大学创新与创业管理研究所常务副所长，入选四川省学术和技术带头人后备人选，2015年破格晋升教授。研究方向为：技术许可和交易、知识产权保护、企业创新国际化和后发国家技术追赶。作品有：《中国自主创新政策评价研究》（独著）、《中国区域创新体系发展的理论与实践》（合著）、《现代企业理论》（联合主编）、《战略管理理论与实践》（主编）等。

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目录

第1部分中国经济学界的未解之谜1问题的起因/001��1中国奇迹：经济高速增长30年/001��1��1经济实力快速增长/001��1��2从农业经济社会向现代工业社会的转型/001��1��3对外贸易的“引进来”和“走出去”/001��1��4人民生活从温饱到小康/01��2中国经济高速增长的成因/01��2��1高生育率积蓄了大规模的剩余劳动力/01��2��2剩余劳动力优势成功嵌入全球产业链/01��2��3经济主力人口的创业创新动力/01��32008年经济增速开始下行/01��3��1工业生产转入了全面过剩/01��3��2消费、投资增速下行和突然放缓/01��3��3传统的出口优势逐步趋弱并已消失殆尽/0 2经济下行的“两家争鸣”与质疑/02��1经济本不应进入中速增长阶段/02��1��1“中速增长常态论”的逻辑推理和政策主张/02��1��2对“中速增长常态论”的商榷/02��2经济下行不是外因所致/02��2��1“增速下行外因论”的逻辑推理和政策主张/02��2��2对“增速下行外因论”的商榷/0 目录第2部分学术争论与历史演变3人口与发展：理论述评与事实/03��1人口与经济关系理论的回顾与评述/03��1��1适度人口论与人口控制主张/03��1��2《增长的极限》与人口资源悲观论/03��1��3市场机制调控家庭生育决策的基本过程/03��1��4人口流动与经济增长关系的研究述评/03��2人口增长与工业化发展/03��2��1人口增长是工业化的必要条件/03��2��2人口增长方式转型也是工业化的产物/03��3人口流动、城市化及工业化发展/03��3��1人口流动加速城市化的进程/03��3��2城市化与工业化发展的互动/03��4人口、工业化与生态环境的动态协调发展/03��4��1人口增长与资源的协调发展/03��4��2人口、工业化与环境的协调发展/03��4��3人口、工业化与生态环境的动态发展/0 4生育权与迁移权/04��1生育权与迁移权的界定/04��1��1生育权在个人和国家间的归属之争/04��1��2迁移权在个人与国家间不同的安排/04��2 生育权的经济学分析/4��2��1生育权的经济学解释/4��2��2生育权行使的经济学探讨/4��3 迁移权的经济学分析/4��3��1迁移权的经济学解释/4��3��2迁移权行使的经济学探讨/ 5 世界经验：基于不同生育权和迁移权的配置/5��1 基于不同生育权配置的国际经验/5��1��1美国不干预的生育及经济发展/5��1��2日本指导性计划生育与经济的先富后低/5��1��3韩国指导性计划生育历程/5��1��4中国台湾地区的指导性计划生育/5��1��5计划生育政策在印度的流产 /5��1��6不同生育权配置的国际经验总结/5��2 基于不同迁移权配置的国际经验/5��2��1美国的人口迁移自由/5��2��2日本的人口迁移和住民登记/5��2��3法国的迁移自由和流动人口管理/5��2��4俄罗斯人口迁移及其低流动性/5��2��5印度的人口迁移与贫民窟的形成/5��2��6不同迁移权配置的国际经验总结/第3部分中国人口生育管制的经济后果6 “人口坑”与经济增长的陷阱/6��1 “人口坑”深浅与经济高增长时间的长短/6��1��1工业化阶段的“人口坑”与经济增长速度/6��1��2中国“人口坑”与经济增长速度放慢/6��2 人口增长变动对经济增长速度的影响/6��2��1即期影响：人口增长对经济增长的影响/6��2��2长期影响：人口变动的20年延期影响定理/ 7 人口结构失衡和老龄化的经济后果/7��1 人口结构与经济排浪式变动及增长波动/7��1��1人口变动与消费、投资和出口变动的数理关系/7��1��2人口变动引致国民经济排浪式衰退/7��2 未来经济长期承受的下行和老龄化压力/7��2��1国民经济未来长期面临的下行压力/7��2��2未来老龄化加剧的诸多难题/ 第4部分中国人口流动管制的经济后果8 人口进入城市和退出农村的障碍和问题/8��1 流动人口市民化的进入障碍/8��1��1中国户籍管理制度变迁与人口流动/8��1��2社会保障与公共服务的不公平/8��2进城农民工人口的农村财产退出障碍/8��2��1农民理性经济人与退出资产障碍和机会成本/8��2��2出租退出困境与其他退出方式比较/8��2��3农地制度复杂性与建设征用为国有之弊/ 9 城市化流程的扭曲和消费塌陷/9��1 “青出老回”与漂泊于城市/9��1��1人口城乡钟摆式和不同地频繁流动/9��1��2人口从农村到城市的“青出老回”/9��1��3不返乡的农民工人口在城市中漂泊/9��1��4大多数国家能够市民化的城市化/9��2城市消费抑制和农村消费塌陷/9��2��1流动人口干预制度下的城市消费抑制/9��2��2“青出老回”流程与农村消费塌陷/结束语/参考文献/0000PART ONEThe Unsolved Mystery in China’s Economic Community1Origin of the Problem/ 001��1Chinese Miracle: The 30 Years of High Economic Growth Rate/ 001��1��1Rapid Growth of Economic Strength/ 001��1��2Transition from Agricultural Economy to Modern Industrial Economy/ 001��1��3“Bringing In” and “Going Out” of International Trade/ 001��1��4From Subsistence to Moderate Prosperity/ 01��2The Reasons of China’s High Economic Growth/ 01��2��1High Fertility Rate Saving Huge Surplus Labor/ 01��2��2Successfully Integrating Surplus Labor Advantage into Global Industrial Chain/ 01��2��3Entrepreneurship and Innovation by Population as Major Economic Force/ 01��3The Slowdown of Economic Growth Since 2008/ 01��3��1Industrial Product Turning into Overall Surplus/ 01��3��2Downturn and an Abrupt Slowdown of Consumption and Investment/ 01��3��3Traditional Export Advantage Exhausting Gradually/ 02Two Theories of Economic Downturn and Doubts/ 02��1The Economy Should Not Enter Intermediate Speed of Growth/ 02��1��1The Logic and Policy View of “Medium Growth as Normal”/ 02��1��2Discussion over “Medium Growth as Normal”/ 02��2Economic Downturn Is Not Caused by External Factors/ 02��2��1The Logic and Policy View of “External Causes of Economic Downturn”/ 02��2��2Discussion over “External Causes of Economic Downturn”/ 0ContentsPART TWOAcademic Debate and Historical Evolution3Population and Development: Theoretical Review and Facts/ 03��1The Review and Discussion of the Relationship Theory of Population and Economy/ 03��1��1Moderate Population Theory and Its View of Birth Control/ 03��1��2“The Limits to Growth” and Pessimistic View of Population and Resources/ 03��1��3Basic Process of Family Planning under Market Mechanism/ 03��1��4Reviews of Literature on Population Mobility and Economic Growth/ 03��2Population Growth and Industrial Development/ 03��2��1Population Growth as Necessity of Industrialization/ 03��2��2Transition of Population Growth as Outcome of Industrialization/ 03��3Population Flow, Urbanization and Industrial Development/ 03��3��1Population Mobility Speeding up Urbanization Process/ 03��3��2Interactions between Urbanization and Industrialization/ 03��4The Dynamic and Coordinated Development of Population, Industrialization and Ecological Environment/ 03��4��1Harmonious Development between Population Growth and Resources/ 03��4��2Harmonious Development among Population Growth, Industrialization and Ecological Environment/ 03��4��3Dynamic Development among Population Growth, Industrialization and Ecological Environment/ 04Reproductive Right and Migration Right/ 04��1The Definition of Reproductive Right and Migration Right/ 04��1��1Dispute over ownership of Reproductive Right between Family and Government/ 04��1��2Different Arrangement of Migration Right between Family and Government/ 04��2The Economic Analysis of Birth Rate/ 4��2��1Economic Explanation of Reproductive Right/ 4��2��2Economic Discussion over Exercise of Reproductive Right/ 4��3The Economic Analysis of Migration Right/ 4��3��1Economic Explanation of Migration Right/ 4��3��2Economic Discussion over Exercise of Migration Right/ 5Experience in the World: The Distribution Based on Different Reproductive Right and Migration Right/ 5��1The International Experience Based on Different Reproductive Right/ 5��1��1Nonintervention Experience of the United States/ 5��1��2Instructive Birth Control in Japan and Its Economic Up and Down/ 5��1��3History of Instructive Birth Control in Korea/ 5��1��4Instructive Birth Control in Taiwan/ 5��1��5Miscarriage of Birth Control in India/ 5��1��6International Experience of Different Arrangement of Reproductive Right/ 5��2The International Experience Based on Different Migration Right/ 5��2��1Free Migration of Population in the United States/ 5��2��2Reproductive Right and Residential Registration in Japan/ 5��2��3Free Migration of Population and Floating Population Management in France/ 5��2��4Migration of Population and Low Mobility in Russia/ 5��2��5Migration of Population and Formation of Slum Problem in India/ 5��2��6International Experience of Different Arrangement of Migration of Population/ PART THREEThe Economic Consequence of China’s Population Planning System6“Population Pit” and the Trap of Economic Growth/ 6��1The Depth of “Population Pit” and The Time Length of High Economic Growth/ 6��1��1“Population Pit” at Industrialization Stage and Economic Growth/ 6��1��2“Population Pit” and Economic Slowdown in China/ 6��2The Influence of the Change of Population Growth on Economic Growth Rate/ 6��2��1Immediate Influence: Population Growth over Economic Growth/ 6��2��2Long-term Influence: Theory of 20-year Delay Effect of Population Growth/ 7The Economic Consequence of Unbalanced and Aging Population Structure/ 7��1Population Structure, Huge Economic Change and the Fluctuation of Increase/ 7��1��1Arithmetical Relationship between Population Structure and Consumption, Investment and Export Fluctuation/ 7��1��2Population Change Leads to National Economic Downturn as Waves/ 7��2The Downward and Aging Pressure on Economy in the Future/ 7��2��1Long-term Economic Downward Pressure of National Economy/ 7��2��2Numerous Difficulties from Aggravating Population Aging/ PART FOURThe Economic Consequence of China’s Population Flow Regulation System8The Barriers and Problems of Population Entering Cities and Exiting Rural Areas/ 8��1The Entry Barriers of theCitizenization of Migrant Population/ 8��1��1Transition of Household Registration System and Population Movement in China/ 8��1��2Inequality of Social Securities and Public Services/ 8��2The Exit Barriers of Rural Property for Migrant Workers in Cities/ 8��2��1Exit Barriers and Opportunity Cost for Farmers as Rational Economic Man/ 8��2��2Dilemma of Renting to Exit and Comparison with Other Methods/ 8��2��3Complexity of Rural Land System and Fraud of Acquisition as State-owned/ 9The Twist of Urbanization Process and Consumption Downfall/ 9��1“Out at Young Age and Return at Old Age” and Drifting in Cities/ 9��1��1Frequent Migration of Population among Multiple Destinations between Rural and Urban Areas in Pendulum Mode/ 9��1��2Population Migration between Rural and Urban Areas as “Out at Young Age and Return at Old Age”/ 9��1��3Drifting Migrant Workers in Cities instead of Returning to Rural Areas/ 9��1��4Urbanization with Citizenization in Most Countries/ 9��2The Restriction on Urban Consumption and the Downfall of Rural Consumption/ 9��2��1System with Intervention over Floating Population Which Restraining Consumption/ 9��2��2Process of “Out at Young Age and Return at Old Age” and Consumption Downfall in Rural Areas/ Conclusion/ References/

封面

书名:繁荣的轮回:人口变动与经济增长的一个逻辑解释

作者:周天勇，王元地著

页数:0

定价:¥58.0

出版社:中国财富出版社

出版日期:2017-03-01

ISBN:9787504764355

PDF电子书大小:85MB 高清扫描完整版